DUBAI, UNITED ARAB EMIRATES, March 20, 2026 /EINPresswire.com/ -- The escalation of conflict involving Iran over the past 2 weeks sent shockwaves across the region, creating a moment of uncertainty that few had anticipated. For markets across the Middle East, it represented a sudden and unexpected test. Critics have long called Dubai’s property market a real estate bubble, arguing it is unable to sustain itself in the long term.

Time after time, history has shown this not to be true. Despite facing numerous challenges throughout the years, from the 2008 global financial crisis, to the more recent Covid-19` pandemic, Dubai, and the UAE more broadly have continued to show remarkable resilience, bouncing back quickly from any adversity they face. This most recent challenge has, so far, proven to be no different.

According to early analysis from Phoenix Homes, the Dubai based real estate brokerage led by Co founder and Chairman Myles Bush, the early data suggests the market has entered a period of caution rather than disruption.

For Bush, who has spent years navigating the cycles of Dubai’s property market, the current moment reflects a pattern the industry has seen before.
“Dubai’s property market has faced its share of turbulence over the years,” Bush says. “From the global financial crisis to the Covid pandemic, each of these moments created uncertainty and short term disruption. But each time the market has shown its ability to stabilise and recover.”
While Bush notes that the circumstances surrounding the Iran conflict are very different from previous events, he believes the early signs reflect a familiar dynamic.

“When events like this happen it is natural for buyers to pause while they assess the situation. What we are seeing so far is hesitation, not panic.”

The clearest shift since the onset of the conflict has been sales volume. Transaction activity across the city has, unsurprisingly, slowed,with weekly sales dropping from 4,427 sales to 2,423, representing a 45% decline. Compared with the same period last year, activity was also lower, with transactions down from 3,923 sales in early March 2025.

Yet whilst these figures may initially seem worrying, early indicators suggest this decline reflects a temporary pause in buyer activity rather than a structural shift in the market. During periods of geopolitical uncertainty, it is common for buyers to delay major financial decisions while assessing how events may unfold. So even though activity has slowed in the immediate aftermath of the shock, the market has remained fundamentally unchanged.

It is also important to recognise that property transactions recorded in a given week typically reflect deals negotiated several weeks earlier. As a result, the data we are seeing today only partially reflects the market’s reaction to the conflict, and the coming weeks will provide a clearer indication of how buyer sentiment evolves. At this moment in time, however, the early data suggests the market has entered a period of short-term hesitation rather than widespread disruption.


Prices Tell a Different Story

While transaction activity slowed in the immediate aftermath of the conflict, pricing across Dubai’s residential market has remained notably stable and has even seen a slight increase, with the average sale price rising from AED 1.61 million to AED 1.645 million, while the average price per square foot remained unchanged at AED 1,700. The fact that not only did prices not fall, but in fact saw a slight increase is significant.
In property markets, falling transaction volumes are often the first reaction to uncertainty, as buyers pause and reassess. Price drops, however, typically only start to show after sustained declines in demand, or, as is often the case in crises, the emergence of distressed selling. At this stage, one week on from the hostilities, the data shows no evidence of widespread price reductions or forced sales. This suggests sellers remain confident in the underlying strength of Dubai’s real estate market.

So although the conflict has introduced caution, the early signs suggest Dubai’s property market is absorbing the shock rather than reacting with panic.


Cash Buyers Continue to Support the Market

One of the defining characteristics of Dubai’s property market is the significant role played by cash buyers, and the latest data suggests this remains unchanged despite recent events. Of the 2,423 transactions recorded during the week 88% of them were conducted without mortgage financing, remaining generally in line with previous weeks. This continued dominance of cash purchases indicates that investor capital has not withdrawn from the market.

The strength of cash investors has historically played an important role in Dubai’s resilience during periods of global uncertainty. Markets that rely heavily on financing tend to be more sensitive to shocks and rising interest rates, whereas Dubai’s high level of cash transactions provides a degree of insulation against short-term volatility.

In practical terms, this suggests that while some buyers are taking a moment to reassess the situation, the underlying flow of capital into the market remains intact.


Luxury Segment Shows Continued Strength

Another notable signal in the early market data is the continued activity within Dubai’s luxury property segment.
During the first week following the escalation of the Iran conflict, the market recorded 45 transactions above AED 20 million, slightly higher than the 43 transactions recorded during the same week last year. While overall transaction volumes declined week-on-week, the resilience of the ultra-prime segment suggests that high-net-worth buyers continue to view Dubai as a compelling place to allocate capital.

Historically, periods of geopolitical uncertainty have often reinforced Dubai’s position as a stable investment destination within the region, particularly for global investors seeking security, liquidity, and long-term growth potential. Although it remains too early to determine whether this trend will persist, especially considering the UAE’s direct involvement with the situation, the continued activity in the luxury segment indicates that investor confidence at the top end of the market remains intact.


A Time for Measured Decisions

Periods of geopolitical uncertainty can often trigger strong emotional reactions in markets. In the immediate aftermath of the Iran conflict, some property owners and investors may feel pressure to make quick decisions about selling. However, history suggests that rash decisions made during moments of uncertainty rarely lead to the best outcomes.

While some voices in the market may urge sellers to act quickly, experienced professionals generally advise taking a more measured approach. Real estate markets do not move as rapidly as financial markets, and short-term shocks often create temporary pauses rather than lasting shifts in fundamentals.
Dubai has repeatedly demonstrated its ability to navigate periods of global and regional uncertainty. From the global financial crisis to the pandemic, the market has shown a consistent capacity to stabilise and recover once conditions become clearer.

The early data following the Iran conflict reflects a similar pattern. Transaction volumes have slowed as buyers take time to assess the situation, yet pricing has remained stable and there has been no evidence of widespread distressed selling or panic-driven transactions.
In fact, the data suggests the opposite. Rather than rushing to exit the market, many participants appear to be waiting for clarity, a trend reflected in lower transaction volumes but steady pricing levels.

According to Bush, in moments like this, experience is critical when advising clients. “We always encourage buyers and sellers to step back and look at the bigger picture,” he says. “Dubai has proven many times that it is a resilient market. Short term events can create hesitation, but the long term fundamentals remain strong.”

For both buyers and sellers, the coming weeks will provide a clearer understanding of how the situation evolves. Until then, the most prudent approach may be one of caution and perspective rather than haste.

Myles Bush
Phoenix Homes
+ +971 50 950 1897
email us here
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